Do Spirit Award Winners Foreshadow Oscar Winners?

With ceremonies like the Golden Globe Awards and the Independent Spirit Awards preceding the Academy Awards every year, people often speculate as to whether or not an actor, actress, director and so forth, winning awards at these prestigious events are signs for future Oscar winners. The Independent Spirit Awards, which took place on Saturday despite the not so preferable weather conditions, pretty much forecasted exactly what we were all expecting. While 12 Years a Slave won for Best Feature, Cate Blanchett took home an award for Best Female Lead in Blue Jasmine, while Matthew McConaughey won Best Male Lead for Dallas Buyers Club.

It’s not exactly surprising that 12 Years a Slave won for Best Feature, considering it also won for Best Motion Picture at the 2014 Golden Globes and for Best Picture at the Critics’ Choice Awards, and the chance of it winning Best Picture tonight at the Oscars is pretty high. However, that’s not the case for many of the nominees in other categories like Best Supporting Actress. Although Lupita Nyong’o took home last night’s Independent Spirit Award for her work in 12 Years a Slave as well as the award for Best Supporting Actress at the Critics’ Choice Awards, Jennifer Lawrence took home a Golden Globe for Best Actress In A Motion Picture. Granted, American Hustle, isn’t a movie that would partake in the Independent Spirited Awards, so the two actresses are pretty much equal at this point in terms of awards.

However, Jared Leto for Best Supporting Male at last night’s awards ceremony, Best Supporting Actor at the Critics’ Choice Awards and Best Supporting Actor In A Motion Picture at the Golden Globes. So, unless you don’t understand logic, it’s likely that Leto will also take home Best Actor In A Supporting Role at tonight’s Oscars event, beating out competition Jonah Hill, Michael Fassbender, Bradley Cooper and Barkhad Abdi. If he doesn’t win, I can imagine all hell will break loose.

Although winning at the Independent Spirit Awards is an impressive feat no doubt, with many of the films from the Oscars not lining up with the ones nominated for last night’s award show as it is meant to only honor independent films exclusively, it’s possible that some nominations can go either way at the Oscars. For instance, Shailene Woodley, who was nominated for Best Female Lead in The Spectacular Now at the Independent Spirit Awards, wasn’t nominated for anything for the Oscars. So, with that, we will simply have to wait until tonight’s show to see the outcome.

See a complete list of Independent Spirit Awards winners below. Winners are bolded:

Best Feature

12 Years a Slave

All Is Lost

Frances Ha

Inside Llewyn Davis

Nebraska

Best Director

Shane Carruth, Upstream Color

J.C. Chandor, All Is Lost

Steve McQueen, 12 Years a Slave

Jeff Nichols, Mud

Alexander Payne, Nebraska

Best Female Lead

Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine

Julie Delpy, Before Midnight

Gaby Hoffmann, Crystal Fairy

Brie Larson, Short Term 12

Shailene Woodley, The Spectacular Now

Best Male Lead

Bruce Dern, Nebraska

Chiwetel Ejiofor, 12 Years a Slave

Oscar Isaac, Inside Llewyn Davis

Michael B. Jordan, Fruitvale Station

Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club

Robert Redford, All Is Lost

Best Screenplay

Woody Allen, Blue Jasmine

Julie Delpy, Ethan Hawke & Richard Linklater, Before Midnight

Nicole Holofcener, Enough Said

Scott Neustadter & Michael H. Weber, The Spectacular Now

John Ridley, 12 Years a SlaveBest Supporting Female

Melonie Diaz, Fruitvale Station

Sally Hawkins, Blue Jasmine

Lupita Nyong'o, 12 Years a Slave

Yolonda Ross, Go For Sisters

June Squibb, Nebraska Best Supporting Male

Michael Fassbender, 12 Years a Slave

Will Forte, Nebraska

James Gandolfini, Enough Said

Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club

Keith Stanfield, Short Term 12Best First Screenplay

Lake Bell, In A World

Joseph Gordon-Levitt, Don Jon

Bob Nelson, Nebraska

Jill Soloway, Afternoon Delight

Mike Starrbury, The Inevitable Defeat of Mister and Pete

Best Cinematography

Sean Bobbitt, 12 Years A Slave

Benoit Debie, Spring Breakers

Bruno Delbonnel, Inside Llewyn Davis

Frank G. Demarco, All Is Lost

Matthias Grunsky, Computer ChessBest Editing

Shane Carruth & David Lowery, Upstream Color

Jem Cohen & Marc Vives, Museum Hours

Frank G. Demarco, All Is Lost

Matthias Grunsky, Computer Chess

Nat Sanders, Short Term 12Best Documentary

20 Feet From Stardom, Director/Producer: Morgan Neville, Producers: Gil Friesen & Caitrin Rogers

After Tiller, Directors/Producers: Martha Shane & Lana Wilson Gideon’s Army, Director/Producer: Dawn Porter, Producer: Julie Goldman

The Act of Killing, Director/Producer: Joshua Oppenheimer, Producers: Joram Ten Brink, Christine Cynn, Anne Köhncke, Signe Byrge Sørensen, Michael Uwemedimo

The Square, Director: Jehane Noujaim, Producer: Karim Amer

Best International Film

A Touch of Sin (China)

Blue is the Warmest Color (France)

Gloria (Chile)

The Great Beauty (Italy)

The Hunt (Denmark)

Best First Feature

Blue Caprice, Director/Producer: Alexandre Moors; Producers: Kim Jackson, Brian O’Carroll, Isen Robbins, Will Rowbotham, Ron Simons, Aimee Schoof, Stephen Tedeschi; Concussion, Director: Stacie Passon, Producer: Rose Troche

Fruitvale Station, Director: Ryan Coogler; Producers: Nina Yang Bongiovi, Forest Whitaker

Una Noche, Director/Producer: Lucy Mulloy, Producers: Sandy Pérez Aguila, Maite Artieda, Daniel Mulloy, Yunior Santiago

Wadjda, Director: Haifaa Al Mansour, Producers: Gerhard Meixner, Roman PaulJohn Cassavetes Award

Computer Chess, Writer/Director: Andrew Bujalski, Producers: Houston King & Alex Lipschultz

Crystal Fairy, Writer/Director: Sebastiàn Silva, Producers: Juan de Dios Larrain & Pablo Larrain

Museum Hours, Writer/Director: Jem Cohen, Producers: Paolo Calamita & Gabriele Kranzelbinder

Pit Stop, Writer/Director: Yen Tan, Writer: David Lowery, Producers: Jonathan Duffy, James M. Johnston, Eric Steele, Kelly Williams

This is Martin Bonner, Writer/Director: Chad Hartigan, Producer: Cherie SaulterRobert Altman Award Mud, Director: Jeff Nichols, Casting Director: Francine Maisler, Ensemble Cast: Joe Don Baker, Jacob Lofland, Matthew McConaughey, Ray McKinnon, Sarah Paulson, Michael Shannon, Sam Shepard, Tye Sheridan, Paul Sparks, Bonnie Sturdivant, Reese Witherspoon