Will Indiana Go Blue In 2016? Mike Pence's Home State Will Likely Remain Loyal
The polarizing effects of the 2016 election have disrupted the usual electoral map. With a polarizing Republican presidential nominee like Donald Trump, who has already been denounced by many of the top leaders in the GOP, many red states are now turning purple and purple may be going blue. In fact, although Trump's running mate is the governor of the state, some are even wondering whether Indiana will go blue in this election.
Considered the reddest state in the Midwest, Indiana has only voted Democrat twice in a presidential election since 1940: for Lyndon Johnson in 1964 and for Barack Obama in 2008. However, the latter was an incredibly tight race, with Obama squeaking out a 1-percent edge over John McCain.
Granted, it's highly, highly unlikely Clinton will become the third Democratic candidate to win over the Hoosier state in more than 75 years. At the time of writing, FiveThirtyEight pegs Clinton with a meek 12.3 percent shot of winning Indiana.
A recent poll from Monmouth University showed Trump leading Clinton in Indiana by 4 percent, with Clinton trailing at 41 percent to Trump's 45 percent. However, this shows a rapid growth of support for Clinton in Indiana, compared to Trump's 11-percent lead in August in that same poll.
Moreover, earlier in the election cycle, considering the largely Republican sway of the state, many were surprised that Bernie Sanders beat Clinton in the Indiana primaries, taking a 52 percent lead to Clinton's 47 percent. The combination of a Sanders primary win and Obama's victory in 2008 have caused some (overly) hopeful Democrats to wonder if the state has a larger left-leaning demographic than previously assumed. In fact, Clinton has opened a campaign office in Indiana, and has staffers busy canvassing to shift the state's bent.
Still, it's highly unlikely Indiana will vote #ImWithHer on Nov. 8.