Is Kansas A Winner-Take-All State? It's Good To Know For Understanding The Delegate Count
This 2016 presidential primary didn’t end with the exhausting Super Tuesday. Presidential primaries and caucuses are continuing throughout the nation this weekend, with Republican voters lining up outside polling centers in Kansas, Louisiana, Maine, and Kentucky on Saturday to cast their vote for the last remaining GOP candidates. Overall, nearly 150 delegates are at stake, and current GOP front-runner Donald Trump needs just 16 of them to stay on pace to win the nomination. How many delegates could Trump win in Kansas? And is Kansas a winner-take-all state? There's a possibility he won't take all of the state's delegates.
Kansas is not a winner-take-all caucus, which means Trump will likely split some of the state’s 40 delegates between his two main contenders, Senators Ted Cruz of Texas and Marco Rubio of Florida. Here's how the Kansas caucus works: There are 40 delegates, 12 of which are spread across four congressional districts; another 25 delegates are doled out to each candidate who garners at least 10 percent of the vote statewide; and an additional three delegates are given out to the overall statewide winner.
Confusing, right? This tricky delegate balancing act is why no Republican candidate is projected to take all of Kansas' delegates.
The Kansas caucus is also closed, which means only registered Republicans can cast their vote on Saturday. According to the Five Thirty Eight blog, this doesn't bode well for Trump, who appears to be more popular among non-registered conservatives than established Republicans.
However, Five Thirty Eight still projects Trump as the winner, though it would hardly be a solid win. The Five Thirty Eight forecast claims Trump has a 51 percent chance of winning Kansas, with Cruz having a 44 percent chance and proving to be Trump's biggest challenger.
Data collected by Real Clear Politics also projects Trump as the winner of the Kansas caucus, but only by a slight margin. The latest Kansas caucus poll, from the Trafalgar Group, found that Trump polled at 35 percent in Kansas, while Cruz came in second at 29 percent; Rubio and Kasich rounded out the GOP field with 19 percent and 17 percent, respectively.
As Republican Kansans continue to line up around the Sunflower State on Saturday, the caucus appears to be shaping up like an inevitable Trump-Cruz showdown. The most recent polling data from the Associated Press showed Cruz with the early lead, polling nearly 20 percent ahead of Trump as of Saturday afternoon while Rubio lagged behind. Indeed, there will be no overwhelming winner here in Kansas.