This Donald Trump Poll Suggests He Has No Chance Of Securing These Important Voters
What many were thinking has been confirmed: Donald Trump's declining support among Republican women is a thing. The latest polls from The New York Times and CBS News showed that since the major party's national conventions, Trump's lead over Hillary Clinton among Republican women has already slipped 13 percentage points, the paper reported this week. This comes on top of the conservative politicians and businesswomen who have come out for Clinton this week (particularly Senator Susan Collins of Maine), which could send even more conservatives running for safety in the Clinton camp.
So what's the deal? Could Clinton dream of winning this demographic? No, Republican women are never likely to be with her — at least, not a majority of them. However, Trump's weakness among GOP women could keep him from the White House. There just simply aren't enough Republican men to counter their defections. Just 37 percent of women overall plan to support Trump at the polls. Among Republican-identified registered voters, 81 percent of women said they prefer him to Clinton, according to a poll taken by The Economist and YouGov.
The New York Time Times interviewed Whit Ayres, a pollster who worked on Marco Rubio's campaign. Ayres said that Republican candidates generally need 90 percent of Republican voters in order to take the White House. Unless The Economist/YouGov poll is an anomaly, that will be impossible. Speaking of recent polls which showed low numbers specifically among GOP women (72 percent at the end of July), Ayres said, "It’s an unusually poor showing. There are not enough men to counterbalance it." In 2004, 2008, and 2012, the Republicans won between 89 and 93 percent of them.
Trump is trailing by 30 percentage points with college-educated white women — 27 percent compared to 57 percent for Clinton, according to a Monmouth University poll. His support among non-college-educated white women is much better: around 49 percent to Clinton's 32 percent.
Perhaps Trump's failure with GOP women is just a side effect of his low numbers across the board. NBC News/SurveyMonkey's latest poll gave Clinton a 10-point lead in a two-way race. But Susan Collins' comments hint at the problems in Trump's character and candidacy that are more troublesome to women:
She referenced three examples of this behavior. First, mocking a reporter with disabilities. Second, attacking an Indiana-born judge for his Mexican heritage. And third, his criticism of the Khan family. She also pointed out that Trump would make the world less safe, due to his "tendency to lash out when challenged."
Whether Trump can do anything to change this perception remains a stretch. On Tuesday, he was in the headlines once more for potentially suggesting that Second Amendment supporters target Clinton. Or vote against her, as he would later argue. Still not presidential, regardless.