Election Predictions For California Are Looking Good For These Progressive Causes
Typically, California tends to be one of those states whose interests are ignored during the national election. After all, they're going to vote Democrat anyway, so why does it matter? Well this year — apart from the presidential ticket — the races are far more interesting, and garnering more attention as a result. This year, the state implemented its top two primary rule. That's made the Senate race between two Democrats. The state's local ballot measures also look to have an outsize influence on the rest of the country, too. Election predictions for California heavily favor Democrats and other progressive causes.
First off, lets take a look at how big of a blowout the presidential race will be. Clinton is, of course, thought to win the state. this being California, there aren't too many polls, but the most recent aggregation on Real Clear Politics points to Clinton leading by between 16 and 26 percentage points. That's no contest. FiveThirtyEight gives her more than a 99.9 percent chance of winning the state. Nate Silver's team also shows a 23-point margin. That's as close as you can come to certain in politics.
As for the U.S. Senate race, thanks to the top two primary system, both of the candidates are Democrats. The frontrunner is current California Attorney General Kamala Harris. She's up against another, more conservative Democrat, Loretta Sanchez. The only October poll covering the race on Real Clear Politics shows Harris winning by 21 points. FiveThirtyEight also gives Harris really impressive odds in the state, if not as high as Clinton's, with 91.5 percent.
From there, the ballot goes on and on, but not so much for traditional office as untraditional proposals. The governorship is not up until 2018, but there's still plenty to vote on. The San Jose Mercury News reported that ballots around the state are as long as four or five pages. That's because there are a total of 17 statewide propositions, including one which would legalize marijuana for recreational use. California is one of five states with ballot measures in that vein. Polls for the California Proposition 64, as issue is labeled there, show it should easily pass.
Another few interesting topics in California include a proposition that would bring back bilingual education. A law in the late '90s made teaching in a language other than English illegal; this would reverse it. A different proposition would require background checks for any guns or ammo bought in the state and limit the size of rounds. That would go further than federal law, in a time when gun control remains a huge national issue. Another would require condoms to be used in any porn movies filmed in the state. All are expected to pass, according to polls.
These propositions shouldn't surprise anyone. California has voted for the Democratic presidential candidate every year since 1992, when Bill Clinton first ran. That same year, and then again in 1993, two Democratic women were sent to the D.C. to serve in the Senate. No one expects these trends to end anytime soon.