Predictions For New Jersey On Election Day Are Lookin' Good For The Democrats
The Democrats must really like what they're seeing in terms of predictions for New Jersey on Election Day. After taking the New Jersey Democratic primary by 26 points, Hillary Clinton is almost certain to follow that up with a win in the general election as well. Donald Trump, who also won his respective primary in New Jersey, has almost no chance of carrying the state in the general election.
Looking at the down-ballot races, there is also a decent chance that the Democrats could gain one seat in the House of Representatives, from New Jersey's 5th congressional district. There, Republican incumbent Scott Garrett is facing a tough challenge from Democratic nominee Josh Gottheimer, and polls show a slight edge for Gottheimer. The district, which currently encompasses the mostly rural northern corner of the state, has had a Republican representative in the House since 1933 — but Gottheimer could be poised to change that. New Jersey has a total of 12 congressional districts, which are evenly split between the two parties. The Democrats would need to flip 30 seats to win the House, so this one seat in New Jersey could be a key part of that.
Meanwhile in the presidential election, New Jersey polling points to Clinton by a wide margin. The closest polls point to a four-point victory for Clinton, but her average lead in New Jersey polls (as of this writing) is over 11 points. The Democratic grip on the state is so strong that neither candidate has spent significant money on New Jersey advertising. When that is the case, it's always a good signal that the presidential election in that state will go as expected; as it stands right now, it would be a surprise of monumental proportions if Donald Trump were to win New Jersey's 14 electoral votes.
The aforementioned races are the only ones in New Jersey likely to garner any national attention, as neither of their senators are up for reelection, and they hold their gubernatorial races in off years. That is probably a good thing for the New Jersey Republican Party, as current Republican governor Chris Christie is embroiled in the "Bridgegate" trial at the moment. Although Christie cannot run for governor again himself in 2017, the GOP will likely still have some trouble making sure that their new nominee is not associated with the matter in any way.
Come Election Day, no one will be holding their breath over which way New Jersey's 14 electoral votes will go. The race for congressman in the 5th congressional district, however, could be an interesting one.