Why The Chicago Cubs Win May Actually Bode Well For Hillary Clinton
As people all over celebrate or mourn the Chicago Cubs historic World Series victory just one week before Election Day, many are (or at least I am) wondering, what does the Cubs win mean for the election? Both in terms of a wagering of mathematical predictions and the shifting tides of public support, it feels only natural to draw parallels between the two competitions that have captivated the nation.
For many, the symbolism of a longtime underdog team, such as the Cubs, winning the World Series for the the first time since 1908 represents a beacon of hope against all odds, a large-scale proof that keeping the faith and working hard can carry you to a seemingly impossible goal. Of course, applying these same principles to the 2016 presidential election results in varying predictions depending on one's political alignment and perception.
Shortly before Game 7 of the World Series, the writer Rob Arthur over at FiveThirtyEight theorized that the Cubs had a smaller chance of winning than Donald Trump did. Based on compounded analysis, FiveThirtyEight predicted the Cub's chance of winning the World Series at a measly 15 percent, significantly lower than their recent election forecast model that put the Republican candidate Trump at a 35 percent chance of beating Hillary Clinton.
After the Cubs were crowned historic winners at the end of the dramatic Game 7 of the World Series, people who rely on the accuracy of FiveThirtyEight's polling system could either take this outcome as a dark premonition towards a Trump presidency or a sliver of hope for Trump (again, depending on one's political leanings).
However, luckily, for those feeling downtrodden by the idea of a Trump presidency, the host of the podcast "Political Junkie," Ken Rudin, has a completely opposing World Series theory that puts Hillary Clinton in the lead.
The theory drawn up by Rudin and supported by his many followers noted a correlation between World Series winners and presidential candidates. According to his theory, during election years where the World Series goes to seven games, when the American League team wins, the Republican takes the White House, and when the National League team wins, the Democrat takes it. So, while this is far less based on statistical analysis than the FiveThirtyEight model, this theory should give hope to Clinton supporters because the Cubs, the National League team, won.
With less than a week until Election Day, a New York Times/CBS News poll released on Thursday revealed a relatively tight race, with Clinton at 45 percent and Trump at 42 percent, a dramatic shift from a national NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll which placed Clinton at an 11-point lead shortly after the second presidential debate. Will the presidential race mirror the World Series with a deadlock tie throughout the ninth inning before the spiritually rain-soaked winner is revealed? If there is a parallel and a theories stand, which candidate will be the Cubs of the election? I suppose, we will just have to wait and see what the 10th inning has in store.