Back in 2016, some voters would not be voting for Hillary Clinton no matter what. The independent "Never Hillary" voters were not necessarily on the Trump train either, though. At the time, 37 percent didn't vote, 33 percent voted for Trump and 23 percent chose a third-party candidate for president. Now, Trump's disapproval rating among "Never Hillary" voters may hold insights in advance of the midterms.
The Axios-Survey Monkey poll, released Friday, shows that 51 percent of these anti-Clinton voters disapprove of President Trump, while some 47 percent approve of the job he's doing. This split could bode well for Democrats if the disapproval can be translated into votes in the midterm election. The poll was conducted online with 52,211 respondents and has a margin of error of 1.5 percentage points.
The split is larger when you look at "strong" approval and disapproval ratings. Some 31 percent of the "Never Hillary" crowd strongly disapproves of Trump while just 18 percent strongly approve. Those could be the voters that are more motivated to turn out for midterms. The group already saw some apathy during the presidential election — when, as mentioned, 37 percent of these voters stayed home on election day.
Survey Monkey noted that the main political descriptor these Americans identify with is "moderate" at 63 percent — not conservative at 22 percent or liberal at 13 percent.
The key issues they tell pollsters matter most are largely in line with all registered voters. But jobs and the economy rates higher, 29 percent to 25 percent, and immigration rates lower, 11 percent compared to 18 percent.
The Axios-Survey Monkey poll included other demographic groups, with most disapproving of Trump. Only rural voters fall in the president's column. The poll showed that 53 percent of all those polled disapproved of Trump while 45 percent approved.
The group that polled strongest against the president were African-American women with 85 percent disapproving and 70 percent strongly disapproving. Just 12 percent approve and only five percent strongly. The issue that they rated most important was also jobs and the economy, but healthcare and education were comparatively more important than with the average registered voter.
Millennials, voters age 18 to 34, were also a challenging group for the president. Some 63 percent of millennial voters disapprove of the president and just 35 percent approve. When looking at the strongly approve or disapprove numbers, the gap widens further. Just 16 percent of millennials strongly approve of Trump while 47 percent strongly disapprove. They're also most worried about jobs and the economy, but the environment and education were comparatively high.
Voter turnout among millennials will be a key focus for Democrats. Despite supporting the Democratic candidate at far higher rates, turnout for this age group has been historically low — some 39 percent of them claim not to have voted in 2016.
Perhaps the most surprising demographic in the survey is suburban white women. The suburbs in general went for Trump in 2016, but it seems white women voters in the suburbs are swinging the other way. 55 percent of these women don't approve of Trump, while 44 percent do. The strongly disapprove numbers are also extremely high at 45 percent.
Given the degree to which these women are registered to vote — some of the highest rates in the country, their opposition to Trump could also be a boon to Democrats running for Congress. The Axios-Survey Monkey poll showed they prefer the Democratic candidates this year, 48 percent compared with 40 percent for the Republicans.
Rural Americans may still be with Trump, but other key demographics don't look so good for Republicans.