Scientific Evidence That 'Bachelorette' Kaitlyn & Shawn Will Break Up

It's hard to have a non-cynical view of The Bachelorette and Bachelor while simultaneously watching Lifetime's UnREAL. However, the shows themselves have managed to prove time and again that the relationships that develop on air don't last once the cameras stop rolling; there is empirical evidence to suggest that Bachelorette stars Kaitlyn Bristowe and Shawn Booth will break up. Out of all 29 total seasons of the two dating reality shows, only five couples are still together. That means that out of 29 people who were supposed to pick a lifelong mate, around 17 percent have stuck together. Not super promising odds.

Let's look at the specifics of this season. Kaitlyn was in many ways a revolutionary Bachelorette, proving much more open about sex than the show's previous contestants, even earning the title of this season's Katniss. She seemed very open about the fact that giving up on her single life would be challenging, telling Shawn mid-season, "I think I am here to explore other relationships, because at the end of this I will never explore another relationship." While her rebellious and honest nature could mean she is out to defy the odds and make sure that this relationship lasts, it also seems likely that that same rebelliousness might make her question and fight against a relationship that was birthed on TV.

Sean Lowe, one of those rare people to still be married to his on-screen paramour, Catherine Giudici, offered the couple some advice. He advised them to not give up when the romance dwindled, and he told them to not let the fame become the central part of their relationship. Kaitlyn and Shawn are currently making the publicity rounds and might televise their wedding. Though probably contractually mandated, this doesn't sound like a promising start to a relationship. I imagine that once all the buzz fades, you're left with a very different relationship that's hard to reconcile with the public one.

Now, it's possible that they will pull through. The Bachelorette has a higher rating of success than The Bachelor: around a 27 percent likelihood of staying together. Only time will tell if this Katniss-like Bachelorette and her fiancé will beat the odds that are certainly not in their favor.