Hillary's Got A Pretty Good Shot In New York

New Yorkers from Long Island to the Canadian border go to polls on Tuesday, and its delegates are in both Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders' crosshairs. It's Clinton's current home state, both where she served as senator and host to her presidential campaign, which has its headquarters in Brooklyn. Sanders, though, would like to make a decent showing too, as Vermont is just across the border Upstate. So given the heated competition thus far in the race to the nomination, will Hillary Clinton win the New York primary?

The polls would say yes. Clinton has been averaging a double-digit percentage point lead in the state (within the teens), since the beginning of April. FiveThirtyEight gives Clinton a 98 percent chance of winning. That's not a sure bet, but it's pretty close. With the glaring exception of Michigan, the polls and Nate Silver's team at FiveThirtyEight have been calling the primaries successfully. Moreover, Clinton's polling numbers have been consistent since at least the end of March with very little variation in her lead.

A win would be convenient for the Clinton camp. She has lost a string of recent primaries and caucuses — most recently in Wyoming. Even Saturday Night Live decided to tease her about it. A big win in New York could turn that momentum around — and bring her closer to the 2,026 pledged delegates she will need for a majority at the convention.

The delegates are assigned proportionally so there's no tricky math. Her target is 122 delegates according to FiveThirtyEight, something she should easily surpass, as that's less than half the state's 247 total pledged delegates. They are all assigned proportionally although some are assigned at-large based on the total state's vote and others by congressional district. Sanders could do better in districts that border Vermont, but not enough to sway the delegate count in his favor.

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Campaigning in the state has been heated, with varying degrees of success. Both candidates have made some mistakes with the New York City Subway system. Clinton couldn't get her Metro Card to work and had to swipe five times before being let through the turnstile. Many could relate, but some said it showed she was out of touch. In either case, she's more with it than Sanders, who implied the system still uses tokens while speaking to the New York Daily News editorial board.

Whether it's in-state campaigning, or the difference in issues that decide the race, this is Clinton's race to lose.