How Big Was Donald Trump’s New York Win? Well, He Would Probably Call It Huge
Well, that didn't take very long. More or less the very instant that the polls closed in the New York Republican primary, and all the news networks and agencies were calling the race for the GOP frontrunner. That's right: New York native Donald Trump just dominated his remaining two Republican rivals in the Empire State, and it's going to go a long ways towards getting him the 1,237 delegate majority he needs to claim the GOP nomination outright. So, how big was Donald Trump's New York win?
When NBC News first announced the victory, they labeled it "significant," and the polls heading into the big day were very clear: Trump was leading by an average of about 30 points, which is blowout territory that you rarely see, and quite frankly, there wasn't much drama about this going in — when you're running against Ted Cruz in the state of New York, let's say you're going to be in good shape.
As it stands now, the margin of victory looks like nothing short of domination. According to The New York Times, Trump is up by nearly 36 points, with 55 percent of the state's precincts reporting. Trump will reportedly finish in the front, with Ohio Gov. John Kasich taking second place, and Sen. Ted "New York values" Cruz all the way back in third. Trump will finish ahead of 50 percent statewide, too, which means he'll claim all 14 of the statewide delegates (the other 81 will be awarded based on results within congressional districts).
According to polling and analysis website FiveThirtyEight, Trump was looking at a relatively modest target number in New York to keep him on-pace for 1,237, and for a first-ballot, drama-free victory at the Republican National Convention in July. He only needed to secure 58 of the state's 95 total delegates by their analysis, and he's already better that by far — he's at 89 out of 95 delegates, and he could pick up a few more before the night is done.
In simplest terms, the numbers in New York are a huge validation of the polls heading into the primary. It's every bit as devastating an outcome for the Never Trump movement as it gets, as well — beyond just the fact that Trump has won many more delegates than they would've wanted, the New York win completely dismantled all the "momentum" arguments for Ted Cruz (even though momentum is overblown as a concept, it matters in how a campaign presents itself).
And now, Trump is heading on to a slew of states that look to be very favorable for him. The next five states are a northeastern swing, through Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania, and Rhode Island. While there isn't much polling out of Delaware to judge from, Trump holds double-digit leads in every other state on that list.