Nate Silver Dramatically Changes His Projection After These Battleground States' Results
FiveThirtyEight's Nate Silver has played a significant role this past year in the industry of election polling projections. As the results continue to roll in from state to state, it seems that the poll projection industry may not be as precise as one may have thought prior to Tuesday night, as various states are flipping, and others becoming tossups. Battleground states such as Michigan and Ohio have proven to be nail biters, which led Silver to dramatically change his projections for the 2016 race as a whole.
In Michigan, where nearly one-third of the vote has been reported, FiveThirtyEight's early projection put Clinton in a solid lead. Various experts also suggested that Trump hadn't done enough in the state leading up to the election to really gain the support of the people. Silver's initial projection for Michigan gave Clinton a 78.9 percent chance of winning all of the state's 16 electoral votes. However, he took to Twitter on Tuesday night with a change of heart.
"OK, change of plans: We're designating Michigan as "too close to call," resetting odds to 50/50 there. Clinton EC odds way down as a result," he wrote. Similarly, FiveThirtyEight initially projected a 71.4 percent chance that Clinton would win the election, but after Trump won Ohio, the outlet changed its projection of the election results, yet again, offering Trump a 55 percent of winning the White House.
Democrats were off to a slow start as results started coming in on Tuesday. The map of Midwestern states leaning red as the numbers come in has the Clinton camp, the political pundits and commentators wondering whether the Democratic nominee can win the race for the White House.
During the 2012 race between President Barack Obama and former GOP candidate Mitt Romney, Obama won Michigan, Ohio, and Wisconsin. While Trump clinched Ohio early on, CNN commentator John King is now suggesting that Michigan and Wisconsin both appear to be "emergency" situations right now for the Clinton campaign.
However, Clinton still has a path to win, even if it's an uphill battle. She will have to pull the numbers in Pennsylvania, where she leads Trump, as well as Michigan, Wisconsin, and New Hampshire, where Trump currently polls ahead. Clinton also has two significant wins in Virginia and Colorado.
Clinton's chances in Michigan look slim, however, according to the New York Times' Nate Cohn.
As reporting of results continues the Clinton campaign struggles to maintain a strong enough lead on Election night.