Oscar Predictions Based On The 2018 Golden Globes Nominees Will Get You So Excited

The year is nearly over, but award season is now officially open, as the Golden Globe nominees have been announced. The Golden Globes take place right after the new year begins, and traditionally set the precedent and tone for the awards season to come. They often predict which films or stars will go on to win the coveted Oscar at the Academy Awards show, usually held in mid-spring. And for the occasional surprise nominees — an indie darling winning the award, an up-and-coming actor beating out an established legend — a Golden Globe nod can cement their status and earn them considerable cred. It's certainly possible to base Oscars predictions off the 2018 Golden Globe nominees.

Even just being nominated can boost a film's profile; if it was good enough to earn a nod, audiences who missed it the first time around will try and catch it before the Oscars. This is just one of the reasons the Golden Globes are as important as the Oscars. Though they don't often get as much credit, they really do confirm a movie's importance and industry acknowledgement. And now that the gauntlet's been thrown down, it's time to dive into the 2018 Golden Globe nominees, and what they mean for the upcoming Academy Awards.

Best Actress

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Some of the expected Oscar nominees, judging from the Globes list, are total Hollywood veterans. Frances McDormand is already a Triple Crown, having won an Emmy (for Olive Kitteridge), a Tony (for Good People), and an Oscar (for Fargo in 1996). McDormand is Globe-nominated for the darkly comedic Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, whose small-town drama echoes her previous Oscar win, but she's up against some pretty hard hitters, including perennial winner Meryl Streep, who's nominated for The Post, a historical drama that's getting plenty of awards attention.

Though the Academy normally shies away from rewarding genre films, Sally Hawkins in The Shape Of Water is the real competition in this category. Jessica Chastain and Michelle Williams are awards darlings, but Hawkins sells the romantic fish-man/human love story at the heart of her movie. And for that, she could surprise everyone and get the gold statuette come Oscars.

But it's no guarantee. Margot Robie's physical transformation into Tonya Harding for I, Tonya took a Globes spot, as did Emma Stone's charming turn in Battle Of The Sexes. Helen Mirren and Dame Judi Dench are the most established actors to get nods, but odds are they may get scooped by beloved Lady Bird star Saoirse Ronan, for the Oscar as well as the Golden Globe.

Best Actor

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We all expect to see Daniel-Day Lewis' name come up any year he takes on a film, and given this is his last before retiring, there's no way he wouldn't make the nominee list for his work in Phantom Thread. It also puts him on the short-list for Oscar gold, despite going up against heavy-hitters like Tom Hanks, Denzel Washington, and especially Gary Oldman in Darkest Hour, who has that tastiest of Oscar bait combos, history and heavy prosthetics.

The Golden Globes are less conservative than the Oscars, so while it's an upset, it's not completely out of line to see Ansel Elgort's name come up for his electric performance in Baby Driver, and first-timer Timothee Chalamet for the steamy coming-of-age story Call Me By Your Name. While James Franco's performance in The Disaster Artist earned him a nod, it's unlikely the insider take on outsider-art movie The Room will earn him an Oscar. And while stars like Hugh Jackman or Steve Carell earned Globe noms, they likely won't make it to the Oscars. And Daniel Kaluuya absolutely deserved acknowledgement for Get Out, but for a comedy?! Come on.

Best Supporting Actress

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This category is chock-full of star talent that nearly outshone the leads in each of their films. Laurie Metcalf's mom in the quirky, sweet coming-of-age story Lady Bird had to get a nomination, though she doesn't have the heavy-hitting wattage of her competition. Allison Janney and Octavia Spencer are the strongest contenders here, though the gravitas of Janney in I, Tonya puts her in top standing to nab that Oscar.

Then there's Mary J. Blige, who gave a strong performance in Mudbound, and could sneak into the Oscar race. Hong Chau, meanwhile, gave a memorable turn in Downsizing, but the movie isn't landing with critics or audiences so don't bet on Oscar love, too.

Best Supporting Actor

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Sam Rockwell's performances never feel supporting, so it's no surprise to see him on the list for Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri. The same goes for Willem Dafoe's sweeter turn in The Florida Project, which might put him in front running for the Oscar.

But despite Rockwell and Dafoe being fan and critical favorites in movies that touch on the political without getting too deep (a perfect statuette combo pack), it's likely Armie Hammer will walk away with the Golden Globe, and perhaps the Oscar, for Call Me By Your Name. And it's a pleasant surprise to see Richard Jenkins get a nod for his role in The Shape Of Water, though he's unlikely to walk away with anything. As for Christopher Plummer? Don't bet on Oscar love.

Best Original Song — Motion Picture

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Beauty And The Beast was snubbed for any Globe noms, but don't rule it out of the Oscar categories just yet, especially with Celine Dion singing "How Does a Moment Last Forever”. Still, "Remember Me" from Pixar's Coco is strong competition. And if you make a musical, something's going to make the nomination list, so it's no shock to see "This is Me" from The Greatest Showman on here, and probably the forthcoming Oscar list, too.

But Nick Jonas for "Home" from Ferdinand?! That could provide some serious competition, as could Mary J. Blige and Mariah Carey for their respective tunes.

Best Director

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Though it didn't get much love elsewhere, Christopher Nolan's Dunkirk is frontrunner for the Golden Globe and Oscar in this category. If Guillermo Del Toro won for The Shape Of Water it would be an amazing upset, as genre pictures usually don't take home major prizes. It's a surprise not to see Luca Guadagnino on the Globes list for Call Me By Your Name or Greta Gerwig for Lady Bird, but they could still make it at the Oscars, as could Jordan Peele for Get Out.

But we can't ignore the possibility of Steven Spielberg getting Oscar love for nomination for The Post — even with competitors like Ridley Scott and Martin McDonagh, he's always a major threat.

Best Animated Movie

Of course Pixar's Coco makes the top of the list, and the likely winner of the Oscar, especially in a year of bland big-studio sequels and smaller indie films that flew under the radar. Loving Vincent's unique and labor-intensive technique -—the first all-oil painting animated feature, will secure it a nomination, but not an Oscar. Ferdinand is already winning critics and audiences with its comedy, but doesn't have the prestige for a prize. And while The Boss Baby and The Breadwinner may be getting some love from the Golden Globes, they're highly unlikely to win anything at the Oscars.

Best Picture

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This is it, the big one. Dunkirk was such a large-scale war picture, this is almost the perfect category for it, as an overall phenomenon. It's not a lock, but it's definitely in the lead. Lady Bird, Get Out and Call Me By Your Name occupy the same "niche" (as in, non-cis, white & male) for Oscar categorization, but maybe previous years' #OscarsSoWhite shaming has finally sunk in, and two, maybe even three of these films will get the nomination.

Then there's The Shape Of Water, which has gotten too much positive critical reception to be ignored, though Best Picture rarely goes to "horror" (despite del Toro's insistence it's a love story first). And golden son of Hollywood Spielberg's period-drama The Post is definitely up for a nod, and possibly even a win, though Dunkirk's looking like the film to beat. Don't count on I, Tonya, The Disaster Artist, The Greatest Showman or Three Billboards getting Oscar nods for Best Picture, although it's not impossible.

Now that the nominees have been announced, the real race is on. Oscar season has officially begun, and it'll be exciting to see who takes away a statuette.