Donald Trump is currently projected to win nearly every Super Tuesday state, meaning the vast majority of the 632 GOP convention delegates up for grabs on Tuesday will likely end up pledged to Trump. His likely victory will put him as the solid frontrunner in the Republican race, although that victory is still not guaranteed. Donald Trump still needs 1155 delegates to secure the nomination, which could possibly not happen.
Trump is leading the statewide polls in almost every Super Tuesday state, but he won't take all of those 632 delegates. Ted Cruz is projected to win his home state of Texas, which would allocate the bulk of Texas' 155 state delegates to Camp Cruz. That's a big loss to Team Trump, and a win for Cruz would definitely prove that the race isn't completely locked up already. Many of the Super Tuesday states are also winner-take-most contests, meaning that even if Trump wins the statewide vote, district level contests could award delegates to other candidates if Trump doesn't do so hot in some specific region. Marco Rubio is reporting high numbers in Virginia, which definitely indicates he could be picking up some delegates there. Trump will more than likely receive most of the delegates from Super Tuesday, but not everyone will go home empty handed.
There's also a significant number of contests that come after Super Tuesday, including Florida and Ohio, Rubio and John Kasich's home states respectively. Those contests, both on March 15, represent a significant number of delegates that Trump can't necessarily count on and another significant challenge to his potential nomination at the national convention in July. Trump absolutely could still take both those states, particularly if Kasich drops out of the race after Super Tuesday, but competition from an already elected official is hard to overcome, as Bernie Sanders proved to Hillary Clinton in Vermont.
Trump is leading in the delegate count by a significant amount as of right now, but the relatively crowded race means that support is split more between the five remaining candidates. With this many candidates still in the race, and still so many delegates to apportion, it’s technically possible that nobody could earn enough delegates to win the nomination. While that’s an unlikely eventuality, it shows that Trump’s victory isn’t as cut and dry as some might believe. As the Super Tuesday reports continue to come in, Trump's delegate count will certainly continue to rise, but even a win on Super Tuesday doesn’t equate to a nomination in this highly irregular election year.
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