Will Bernie Sanders Drop Out After The New York Primary? Let's Break This Down
Democratic presidential candidates Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton will face off once more in the New York primary on Tuesday, and it's going to be a doozy. The two candidates, who have been locked in an unexpectedly competitive contest for the past several weeks since Sanders’ recent string of primary wins, have pulled out all the stops to one-up each other in the Empire State. Yet, going into the voting booths Tuesday morning, Sanders was still down in the polls by around 10 points. Will Bernie Sanders drop out after the New York primary? It doesn’t seem likely, but Clinton and fans are pushing for it.
Despite his recent string of wins and his intense campaigning efforts in New York, Sanders is still susceptible to a dropout after this primary because of increasingly disadvantageous delegate math — Clinton leads the Vermont senator by almost 300 pledged delegates and over 450 superdelegates. If Sanders can’t pull off the win in New York, the situation becomes even more dire, and the best way to preempt a disappointing convention loss would be to drop out now.
But is that really the future of the Sanders campaign, which has worked so hard to get within range of the long-presumed frontrunner?
1) Maybe, And Here's Why
If Sanders doesn't get the majority of the delegates in New York, his figures don't look promising for the convention. Sanders needs to earn about 67 percent of the remaining delegates, including the currently unpledged superdelegates, to automatically clinch the nomination, and if he doesn't get the majority in New York, that will be a Herculean task. It would definitely be easier on Sanders' campaign if he dropped out after a loss in New York.
2) No, And Here's Why
Even if he loses New York, Sanders wouldn't give up this close to the convention, especially with some contested primaries coming up. He's closing the gap in California, where 475 pledged delegates are up for grabs, and even the idea of winning that state away from Clinton could be enticing enough to stay in the race. There are a few other primaries, including Oregon and Montana, that have similar demographics to states Sanders has already won. He's got a good chance to pick up a decent number of delegates and at least continue fighting for a majority rather than an automatic nomination win.
Not to mention the superdelegates. Clinton has gotten endorsements from about half of those available — 469 out of the 719 total. That leaves 250 left over to potentially endorse Sanders as the convention approaches. That number is far from set in stone, but it makes sense if the delegates didn't want to endorse Clinton and were waiting to see how primary season shaped the race.
This race seems determined to continue until the convention, and it just seems too unlikely that Sanders would come this far to drop out after one loss.
3) What The People Want
Twitter seems filled with Sanders supporters, many of whom are actually calling for Clinton to drop out and let Sanders take the lead in the Democratic party.
However, there are still plenty who would prefer Sanders hop out of the race after Tuesday's primary.
The future of the Democratic party and this election season could seriously come down to the New York primary. Make sure you're tuned in to the results on Tuesday night.