Amongst all the quick romances, album issues, baby making, and other drama, there is always one constant, obvious truth on Nashville : Rayna and Deacon are meant to be together. We've all known it since day one. We can fight it and say that it's time for Rayna to move on with someone more secure in his life, someone who knows what he wants for a change, etc., but no one has been right for the country music queen except the one great love of her life. Even I thought that maybe Luke was finally the person to change things around for Rayna, because he has his own family, is successful in his own right, and is adorable to boot. But after his behavior at the CMAs in the Season 3 episode "You're Lookin' At Country," things have really changed. Luke didn't handle Rayna's success well at all and created several arguments out of that and a small disagreement over a potential prenup. While the couple did kiss and makeup in the end, the promo for "Two Sides To Every Story" has Rayna telling Deacon she's getting married in two weeks while he says he still loves her. Could we be seeing the beginning of the end for Rayna and Luke?
I believe we are and at this point, the real question to ask may not be if it will happen, but when will it happen? Most likely, their break-up will be due to Rayna's relationship with Deacon, and Rolling Stone interview Rayna did about their past won't help matters. Maybe Luke reads that and realizes he and Rayna will never have what she had with Deacon. Maybe after reading, Rayna herself will walk away. It's time to guess the odds of when Rayna and Luke will break up.
2 Weeks Before The Wedding: 35:1
It seems likely that this relationship will end before the couple can say I do. So how soon before the wedding will the break-up happen? I think two weeks might be a little too soon, as Deacon will have just revealed to Rayna that he still and will always love her. She might need some time to think. Plus, two weeks before the wedding might not be dramatic enough for this show.
Days Before The Wedding: 20:1
Breaking up a few days before the wedding does seem a bit more dramatic and interesting, but it would have to be during something important. Maybe at the rehearsal, Rayna and Luke realize this isn't the right path for them and they walk away. But we all know what would be even more interesting to watch.
The Day Of The Wedding: 5:1
Sure, we've already seen Juliette drive away from her own wedding to NFL player Shawn Butler (of course, they were technically already married), but we've never seen the dramatic walk down the aisle, start of the ceremony, and runaway bride trope. While I don't see Rayna literally picking up her dress and running after Deacon, nor do I see Deacon pulling a Graduate and stopping the ceremony, I do believe that Rayna will want to end the nuptials before they begin if she finally realizes this wedding isn't for her. I think it's more likely she goes to Luke and tells him she needs to end the ceremony before it begins, to his devastation.
After The Wedding: 10:1
While I'm not too sure this will happen, it would be interesting to see Luke and Rayna get out of the marriage after the wedding, as they would try to make it work and realize it's impossible. Then we'd get to see the divorce proceedings, which could have their own drama, especially considering the stars have decided against the prenup. Luke made a speech to Rayna about how his last wife took everything from him, so wouldn't it be fascinating to see Luke try to do the same to Rayna? Let's be honest, if the relationship ends after the wedding, it'll be because Luke believes Rayna loves Deacon or because she realizes it herself. And if that's the case, Luke won't go away easily. It might be great drama to watch Luke do to Rayna exactly what he said happened to him after his first marriage, though it won't be fun for Rayna.