Will SAG Awards Best Picture Go To 'Birdman'? We Predict The Results Based On Past Winners

The 21st Annual Screen Actors Guild Awards are fast approaching, offering devoted fans a final round of cinematic victors before the kingpin of awards season is set to take place: aka, the Oscars. Although most of us just use the various guild ceremonies like the SAG Awards as means to predict who'll win the Academy Awards, it's still a good deal of fun (for movie buffs, anyway) to try and predict who'll take home the top SAG trophy: the Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture Award.

This year's nominees are all, as per usual, up for the Best Picture. There's the lavish black comedy Birdman, the temperate coming-of-age story Boyhood, the delightful European caper The Grand Budapest Hotel, the somewhat stuffy Alan Turing biopic The Imitation Game, and, finally The Theory of Everything, the altogether dull and reductive attempt at illustrating the life and work of Stephen Hawking.

We might already have our inklings of which picture will take home the award, but perhaps a bit of research can help really nail down a just prediction. If we look back at all previous winners and nominees, can we note any shared characteristics with this year's candidates to nail down a likely winner?

At the very least, we can try. I mean, what else are we gonna do? We've already seen all these movies, so it's not like we've got any other way to kill the time before the show on Sunday.

Birdman

What chance does the Manhattan-set comedy about a has-been actor struggling to reclaim past glory (and perhaps reconnect with his daughter in the process) have at the award?

Movies set in New York:

1 winner (American Hustle), 8 additional nominees (American Gangster, Being John Malkovich, Black Swan, Doubt, Good Night and Good Luck, The Hours, In America, Precious)

Movies about film and/or theater:

3 winners (The Artist, Chicago, Shakespeare in Love), 8 additional nominees (Adaptation, Being John Malkovich, Billy Elliot, Black Swan, Boogie Nights, Get Shorty, Moulin Rouge!, Nine)

Movies that prominently feature parent/child relationships:

1 winner (American Beauty), 12 additional nominees (Almost Famous, August: Osage County, The Descendants, Billy Elliot, The Birdcage, Black Swan, The Kids Are All Right, Lee Daniels’ The Butler, Life Is Beautiful, Magnolia, Marvin’s Room, Precious)

Boyhood

What is the likelihood of the sweet, simple story of a Texan boy growing up alongside his divorced parents and older sister taking the top SAG?

Movies set in Texas:

2 winners (Apollo 13, No Country for Old Men), 1 additional nominee (Dallas Buyers Club)

Coming-of-age movies:

1 winner (Slumdog Millionaire), 5 additional nominees (Almost Famous, Billy Elliot, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, An Education, Precious)

Movies that are primarily about families:

2 winners (American Beauty, Little Miss Sunshine), 10 additional nominees (August: Osage County, The Descendants, My Big Fat Greek Wedding, The Birdcage, The Fighter, In America, The Kids Are All Right, Marvin’s Room, Sense and Sensibility, Silver Linings Playbook)

The Grand Budapest Hotel

Fun from beginning to end, could Wes Anderson's delightful romp through a pre-World War II Europe earn the Outstanding Performance by a Cast Award?

Movies set in contiguous Europe:

1 winner (Inglourious Basterds), 8 additional nominees (Chocolat, The English Patient, Les Miserables, Life Is Beautiful, Midnight in Paris, Moulin Rouge!, Nine, Saving Private Ryan)

Movies dealing with World War II:

3 winners (Gosford Park, Inglourious Basterds, The King’s Speech), 4 additional nominees (The English Patient, Lee Daniels’ The Butler, Life Is Beautiful, Saving Private Ryan)

Movies about hotels:

2 nominees (The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel, Hotel Rwanda), no winners

The Imitation Game

Benedict Cumberbatch's turn as Alan Turing is evident of great skill, but is his role in the biopic enough to win the movie a trophy?

Movies set in the United Kingdom:

3 winners (The Full Monty, Gosford Park, The King’s Speech) 10 additional nominees (Billy Elliot, An Education, The English Patient, Finding Neverland, The Hours, How to Make an American Quilt, Sense and Sensibility, Shine, Titanic, Waking Ned Devine)

Movies dealing with World War II:

3 winners (Gosford Park, Inglourious Basterds, The King’s Speech), 4 additional nominees (The English Patient, Lee Daniels’ The Butler, Life Is Beautiful, Saving Private Ryan)

Movies dealing with gay themes:

3 winners (American Beauty, The Full Monty, Little Miss Sunshine), 8 additional nominees (Billy Elliot, The Birdcage, Brokeback Mountain, Capote, Dallas Buyers Club, The Kids Are All Right, Magnolia, Milk)

The Theory of Everything

Finally, the Stephen Hawking biopic that has landed the talented Eddie Redmayne on the map. What are The Theory of Everything's chances?

Movies set in the United Kingdom:

3 winners (The Full Monty, Gosford Park, The King’s Speech), 10 additional nominees (Billy Elliot, An Education, The English Patient, Finding Neverland, The Hours, How to Make an American Quilt, Sense and Sensibility, Shine, Titanic, Waking Ned Devine)

Movies featuring characters struggling with a disease or disability:

9 nominees (August: Osage County, The Aviator, A Beautiful Mind, Dallas Buyers Club, The Descendants, Magnolia, Marvin’s Room, Shine, Sling Blade), no winners

Movies about marriage:

1 winner (Chicago), 9 additional nominees (Being John Malkovich, My Big Fat Greek Wedding, The Birdcage, Brokeback Mountain, The Descendants, How to Make an American Quilt, In the Bedroom, Magnolia, Ray)

Scores

Birdman: 5 winners, 28 additional nominees = a 15% chance of winning once nominatedBoyhood: 5 winners, 16 additional nominees = 24% chance of winning once nominatedThe Grand Budapest Hotel: 4 winners, 14 additional nominees = 22%The Imitation Game: 9 winners, 22 additional nominees = 29% chance of winning once nominatedThe Theory of Everything: 4 winners, 28 additional nominees = 12.5% chance of winning once nominated

While The Theory of Everything and Birdman might have had the greatest odds of being nominated (based on these statistics), they are the least and second least likely to win, respectively. The Grand Budapest and Boyhood, on the other hand, should have had much lower chances at earning a nod in the first place, but top the aforementioned by a wide margin.

Of course, The Imitation Game evens out as a fairly likely nominee and the most likely winner. But we'll have to see what comes to be on Sunday, Jan. 25, when the SAG Awards take place!

Images: The Weinstein Company (2); Fox Searchlight Films (2); IFC Films; Universal Pictures