9 Midterm Predictions For 2018 That Signal Some Major Political Shake Ups
In a few short days, the nation will finally know how the midterm election shakes out. But, as your Type A friends may remind you, it never hurts to be prepared — and 2018 midterm predictions show there will likely be some major political shake ups on Tuesday.
The buildup to this year's election has felt more intense than in previous years, in large part because of Donald Trump's divisive presidency. All 435 seats in the House of Representatives are up for election, and nearly all of the most competitive races are currently held by Republicans, according to CNN's analysis. This election, CNN reports, seems "highly likely to widen the trench" between a Democratic Party that controls the metropolitan areas skeptical of Trump's agenda and a Republican Party that controls rural and suburban areas that support Trump.
Along with those fighting to either keep their House seat or take one over next year, one-third of the Senate and 36 governors also face elections on Tuesday. Regardless of what happens, the midterm election will determine who helps make crucial decisions about America — and these nine predictions signal that it could be a very different group of people than currently hold elected office.
Young People May Drive High Voter Turnout
It's generally true that significantly fewer people vote in midterm elections than in presidential elections, but young people could help change that this year. Just 37 percent of eligible voters cast ballots in the 2014 midterms, — and turnout was even lower for 18- to 29-year-olds, with just 20 percent voting. However, 40 percent of voters age 18 to 29 say they'll "definitely vote" on Nov. 6, according to a poll released Monday by the Harvard's Kennedy School's Institute of Politics. Of course, time will tell if they show up in such high numbers.
The Number Of Women Serving In Congress Could Double
Currently, 84 women serve in the House, and that number could jump to 211 come 2019 due to the influx of women running this year, according to Politico's predictions. The Senate would see a smaller, though still significant increase, with women potentially gaining four new seats.
States Could See A Spike In Women Governors, Too
In the same vein, the number of states with a woman governor could rise from six to 16, per Politico's predictions. Stacey Abrams is vying to become the first black woman governor in her Georgia race. Gretchen Whitmer is running to replace Michigan's Republican governor and protect abortion rights in the state. And other women are running in states across the country for a shot at an echelon of elected office historically reserved for men.
The nation has never had more than nine women leading state governments at a time, according to the Center for American Women and Politics, so 16 would drastically raise the standard.
Congress Will Up Its Millennial Representation
Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-New York) became the youngest woman ever elected to Congress in 2014 at the age of 30, but she'll likely relinquish that title next week. At least two Democratic challengers expected to win on Tuesday — Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez running in New York and Abby Finkenauer in Iowa — are currently 29. Finkenauer would turn 30 before assuming office, but she'll help raise the number of millennials serving in Congress regardless.
The First Class Of Native American Congresswomen Will Probably Be Elected
Democrats Are Expected To Take Back The House
Though dozens of House races are considered toss ups ahead of the election, the statistical analysis website FiveThirtyEight estimates that Democrats have an 86 percent chance of reclaiming control of the House. Doing so would give the party more power to oppose Trump's policies and hold him accountable when they feel he's acting out of line.
Republicans Will Likely Maintain Control Of The Senate
Over in the Senate, however, FiveThirtyEight predicts that Republicans will keep their majority following the midterms. A split Congress would likely make it difficult for either party to get much done, but the president's party controlling the Senate would prevent Democrats from pushing back on his policies too much.
It Looks Like One Female Senator Will Lose Her Seat
Sen. Heidi Heitkamp (D-North Dakota) has trailed her Republican opponent in polls since February, according to CNN. Republican candidate Kevin Cramer is likely to unseat Heitkamp, who's served in Congress since 2013.
Florida Could Make Trouble For Trump In 2020
Across the country, Florida's progressive candidate for governor, Andrew Gillum, has a shot at defeating Trump's pick — Republican Ron DeSantis. A recent University of North Florida poll has Gillum ahead by six points following multiple tweets from Trump bashing his character.
A win for Gillum would indicate that Trump's Florida base has dwindled since the 2016 election and spell trouble for the president going into 2020.
Congress and state governments are expected to see a lot of turnover in 2019, but the outcome of the midterm election depends on voters. Make sure you get all your midterm questions answered before the big day.