Arrow stumbled around a bit in its third season, but so far, Season 4 feels like a return to form. A good deal of credit for its bounce-back is the introduction of Damien Darhk, a villain who's worth the time fans will be asked to invest in him. The mysterious man in black has only been in town for a few weeks, but he already has Star City in a vice grip and Captain Lance in his pocket. The season premiere ended with a flash forward that showed Oliver and Barry Allen standing in front of a grave. The identity of the deceased is still unknown, but foreshadowing tells me that Damien Darhk will have everything to do with this death. And his guy on the inside of Star City's law enforcement is at the greatest risk. So, I'm going on record to bet that Damien Darhk will kill Quentin Lance on Arrow this season.
To be clear: I don't want Captain Lance to go. But Laurel and Sara's dad's storyline has played out. He's lost a child (twice), declared civil war on the Arrow, and come to a tentative understanding with his surviving kid. There are only so many conflicts that can be created between Star City's establishment and Team Arrow, and Captain Lance has been the face of those conflicts for almost four years. Also, I'm not sure how he can come back from collaborating with and enabling Damien Darhk, even if he's still in the darhk (sorry) about the man's intentions.
And consider the other options: Diggle and Thea just got their costumes, so they should be safe for a while. Laurel is the only Canary left on this show, at least. And the entire fandom would revolt if even a hair on the head of Felicity Smoak were touched. Captain Lance is the only other character's whose death would have enough of an emotional impact to be worth teasing so early on.
The question then becomes when will Darhk turn on Lance? Actor Neal McDonough told E! that new motivations for his character will come to light as the season progresses. The prevailing fan theory is that Darhk is the biological father of Felicity Smoak, and though McDonough's comments here are vague, they do seem to support that guess.
Halfway through the season, you find out something about Damien: that he actually does have a soul. We'll go into why Damien turned into who he is. We're flashing back to why Damien's so evil and so determined to crush the world. He does have some heart in there somewhere. You haven't seen it yet, and you don't see it for a good third of the way through the season, and then once you do see something that he does love, then that sets him off, and he'll want to kill anyone who does mess with the thing that he does love.
If Felicity will be the reason for Darhk coming for Lance, then that means that Lance will end up doing something to jeopardize the Palmer Tech CEO, at least in her father's eyes. Captain Lance hasn't shown the best judgement so far on Arrow, so I wouldn't put it past him to make a decision that inadvertently puts Felicity in danger. And with Damien Darhk breathing down his neck, it may be the last bad decision he ever makes.
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