I'll admit, statistics are just about the last thing I would think to combine with The Bachelorette. After all, the show is supposed to involve matters of the heart, not matters of probability! But website FiveThirtyEight has used math that could possibly help you win your Bachelorette bracket. Ella Koeze and Walt Hickey's research examined all the seasons of the show and found that there are patterns that could determine a contestant's likelihood of winning the Final Rose (and Rachel's heart). The ladies of Bustle's Will You Accept This Podcast? spoke to the FiveThirtyEight researchers about all of their findings, but I would like to use their results in order to predict one thing in particular: Will Bryan Abasolo win The Bachelorette?
I'm not the biggest fan of Bryan. After he called Rachel "sloppy seconds" on national television, it was clear that the suave chiropractor still has a lot of growing up to do. But, unlike me, Bachelorette Rachel seems to really like him. Not only did she give him the First Impression Rose, but he was the first person she decided to kiss: Not an insignificant gesture in the world of The Bachelorette. But what does receiving the First Impression Rose actually mean for Bryan's chances?
According to the report from FiveThirtyEight, it most likely means that he has a pretty decent chance of making it at least to the final four. Just over half (52.2 percent) of all First Impression Rose recipients made it to Hometowns — an impressive statistic considering the number of other contestants that had to be eliminated to get down to four. So, I'd wager there's a pretty good chance Bryan will be bringing Rachel to his hometown in Miami before the season ends.
But does that mean he'll win? Not necessarily. The report concludes that though First Impression Roses are a good predictor of who will make it past the initial few weeks, they aren't necessarily a reliable indicator for who will leave engaged. While it's true that four First Impression Rose winners have gone on to win their season, that only makes up 17.4 percent of all recipients of the coveted first rose. FiveThirtyEight reveals that a much better predictor of who might win is indicated by who gets a one-on-one date early on. Last season's Bachelor winner Vanessa Grimaldi had a one-on-one in Week 3, and Ashley Hebert's hubby (and father of her two adorable kids!) J.P. Rosenbaum also received a rose during his Week 3 one-on-one.
Week 3 has come and gone, and we still haven't seen a one-on-one date for Bryan. This doesn't mean that he has no shot at all of winning, and I'd say he definitely has a better chance than some other contestants (cough, Lee, cough). But as the weeks tick by with nothing but group dates for Byran, he might be consigned to the 82.6 percent of First Impression Rose recipients who leave brokenhearted.
Sorry Bryan — it's not personal, it's statistics!