Chelsea may have nabbed the first impression rose, but when it came to pick someone for his first one-on-one, Arie went with Becca K. First impression roses have long been a rumored predictor for franchise winners, but can the same be said for first dates? Will Becca win The Bachelor (producers: Fallon Jethroe, Nikki Lazaran)?
Certainly, the 27-year-old publicist has emerged as a frontrunner. She caught Arie's eye on night one when she asked him to get down on one knee for an adorable pretend proposal. And, when they stepped out for their date, he pulled out all the stops, calling in fashion icon Rachel Zoe for a one-on-one styling session and showering Becca with expensive gifts (including some Neil Lane jewelry that may be a big hint she leaves the mansion with a ring). Even by The Bachelor's standards, it was pretty extravagant.
Despite the lavish date, though, Becca came across as sweet, gracious, and down to earth. She seemed to be embracing the experience without hard-lined expectations, and during the night portion of their date, opened up about the loss of her dad, showing she can be both silly and vulnerable. By the end of the night, Arie had, unsurprisingly, asked her to accept his first (official) rose, to which she happily obliged. Also of note? Unlike other one-on-one winner Krystal, Becca has, so far, steered clear of any drama with the other women, positioning her as a likable and easy to root for favorite.
All of that puts her on track to go far in the race for Arie's heart, but it still begs the question: Will that land her a proposal, or will she end up heartbroken, and, likely, in the running for The Bachelorette? According to data compiled by FiveThirtyEight, it's definitely a strong indicator that she'll stick around for quite a while. Per the site's analysis, contestants who survive a one-on-one date four to six weeks before the season narrows to a final four remained on the show, on average, 1.5 to two weeks longer than contestants overall. However, receiving the first one-on-one far from guarantees the final rose.
It started out promising during The Bachelor's first two seasons: Both Amanda Marsh and Helene Eksterowicz earned the first one-one-ones and later went on to win. Seasons 3 through 12, which aired between 2003 and 2008, are significantly less documented, which, unless you have a detailed memory of every Bachelor season in existence, makes it difficult to discern if that trend continued throughout that time. Based on FiveThirtyEight's gatherings, it appears as if five of those 10 seasons featured winners who had dates early on, though that only means they were one of the first one-on-one recipients, not necessarily the first. And even if they were, that's only about a 50-50 chance, which may have given them better odds than other contestants, but certainly isn't a sure thing.
In recent years, that percentage has plummeted. Across the last eight seasons, not a single person who snagged the first one-on-one ended up winning the show. In fact, it seems like more of a detriment than an advantage. All of the women who scored the first date made it to at least week six, and many of them much further, only to be rejected in the final stretch (with the exception of Season 19's Megan Bell and Season 14's Ali Fedotowsky, who both quit during week six).
So, overall, it is good to get a one-on-one early on, but it's best not to be the first. That doesn't mean Becca can't be the one to turn the tides, but the cards are stacked against her. The safest bet is to keep an eye on Krystal or one of the women who receive a one-on-one in week three. Statistically, they're much more likely to win Arie's final rose.