During the premiere of Season 12 of The Bachelorette, JoJo Fletcher gave the coveted first impression rose to Jordan Rodgers. Rodgers already seems like a standout in the competition, considering he's a retired professional football player, who just so happens to be related to Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers. But if the show's preview of upcoming episodes is any indication, the other contestants don't like him one bit. Perhaps it's out of jealousy and they can sense he's already bringing his A-game. Still, it's easy to wonder: Does the first impression rose really matter? I mean, how many of its recipients have gone on to actually win the show? Don't worry, I've decided to do some math and see if the odds are in Rodgers' favor.
In the show's history, there have only been a handful of times where the Bachelorette correctly chose her future suitor with the F.I.R. (Totally using this abbreviation from now on, since it's such a long phrase.) In Season 11, Shawn Booth received the first impression rose and later won the season. Basically Kaitlyn Bristowe knew from the beginning that he was the one. Meanwhile, in Season 6, Ali Fedotowsky gave Roberto Martinez the rose. He wound up winning, but didn't quite get a happy ending. The pair was engaged and later broke up. The only other time that a Bachelorette chose her winner via first impression rose was Season 4 with DeAnna Pappas. However, it's worth noting that she gave out three F.I.R.s in the season's first three episodes. Jesse Csincsak won, but didn't receive his first impression rose until episode 2.
Another fun fact: There was no F.I.R. during the show's first two seasons; it was introduced in 2004. Taking into account that info, I'm going to count Jesse's week two rose and count failed engagement, which means only three out of nine times did the first impression rose work out in the contestants' favor. That statistic isn't terrible, it winds up being one-third. But Jordan is going to have to really impress JoJo, if he wants to win the whole show.
Here's the TL;DR version of the above: The Bachelorette 's first impression rose history compiled in one convenient pie chart.
Good luck, Jordan! There's a 1 in 3 chance that he may very well win this season, thanks to snagging the F.I.R.
Image: Giphy; Jamie Primeau/Bustle; ABC